An Open Letter to CNBC
By Wistar Holt
Dear Maria, Joe, David, Mark, Leslie, Becky, Bob, and Mary:
I'm confused! Have you lost your touch? Remember the good ol' days
in 1999 and early 2000 when you could make stocks jump every time
it was earnings season? "So and so beat by a penny," you used to
cry. It was magical the way you could make those tech stocks soar.
Of course they all came crashing back down to earth, some even close
to purgatory. But hey, details! This time however, when those same
companies "beat the street," the stocks are falling despite great
2Q earnings. Mysteriously, NASDAQ has declined 9% thus far in July.
I wonder if part of the problem isn't karma. I liked it better when
you used to refer to each other as the Kahuna, the Brain, or the
Bond Babe. It felt more like a fraternity, because you and we viewers
were all so close. What happened? Let's get back to those days. Maybe
we can get the ball rolling by giving Kudlow and Cramer nicknames.
By the way, off-air did you also have a nickname for your viewers?
You don't think "a penny better" doesn't matter anymore, do you?
I hear there are some "grizzlies" out there with obscure names like
Russell, Sinclair, Roach, Kasriel, Murphy, Taylor, and Tice who don't.
They talk about things like $500+ billion budget and current account
deficits, record debt levels, low savings rates, a 25% decline in
the dollar, or high market valuations. I rarely hear you express
concern for those things, so I assume that those "bears" don't know
what they're talking about. Why, Kasriel talks about Austrian Economics,
while Taylor mentions the Kondratieff Cycle. Murphy wants to replace
paper money with gold and claims that the U.S. government and the
large banks are artificially suppressing the price of gold. Isn't
that ridiculous? Roach, well he is just plain confusing to read.
Russell claims that the market discounts current news and therefore
refers to your commentary as "noise!" I've even heard some people
rename your network "CNBS!" Not me, I think I'll maintain your "by
a penny" investment strategy because it's a lot easier to comprehend.
I hope you won't let me down.
I don't blame you for never interviewing any of these "doom and
gloomers." Your viewers don't need to be exposed to that kind of
propaganda. It's much better to parade the likes of Bob Froelich
(Dr. Bob, now there's a nickname), Art Hogan, Al Goldman, Stuart
Friedman, Alan Skrainka, James Glassman, and the greatest bull of
all, Richard Hoey. I'm most grateful for Hoey, for he was the one
who assured us all that the bear market was over and a new, long
term bull market had begun. (It's funny, but he didn't seem quite
so confident last week.)
You know, if "a penny better" isn't working, I have another idea
to get this market moving north. Ever since the scuttlebutt came
out involving Enron and WorldCom, you have asked your guests to disclose
if they own the stocks they promote on your show. Surprisingly, most
of them don't even own their top recommendations! I find that peculiar,
unless of course, they don't believe they can pick stocks. So, let's
force them to buy every stock they recommend. Think of all the buying
power that will create. I suppose most of those shunned "bears" own
their own recommendations. Maybe that is why they are winning this
stock market tug of war.
Before I close, I would like to ask you one more question. If the
market doesn't recover any time soon, would you ever consider converting
to a comedy channel? I understand viewership is high in that arena.
Wistar W. Holt
Holt & Shapard Capital Management,
LLC
St. Louis, MO 63108
(314)367-6300 / (877)367-6300
A Reply to Wistar Holt from CNBC
Dear Mr. Holt:
Thank you for your recent letter to all of us at CNBC. Although
most of your suggestions are good, there are already some changes
taking place which you may not be aware of. For instance, the U.S.
dollar scares the "bejesus" out of us! We're afraid it may not last
any longer than Martha Stewart's acknowledgement of guilt. Therefore,
for the next earnings season, you won't hear us report that someone "beat
by a penny" anymore. No, we're more likely to say that "so and so
missed by a euro or two." Of course, these releases will still be
pro forma to lessen the pain. In addition, you may need to test your
hearing because our allies on Wall Street have suggested that we
whisper those results, since they have spent so much energy convincing
everyone to focus on the "whisper number." We agreed because if the
results are going to be that bad, we don't want to blurt it out anyway.
Furthermore, our currency concerns have swayed us into demanding
that our salaries be paid in euros.
Speaking of compensation, we have negotiated our annual pay increases
based on the RCPI (Real Consumer Price Index). It definitely includes
food and energy since that's where all of our money goes these days.
Pay is expected to escalate 12%, 15%, and 18% respectively, over
the next three years. We hope this income allows us to be self-supporting
when the baby boomers retire and there are insufficient employment
withholdings to cover social security and Medicare. Management is
so concerned about this widespread problem that they have asked our
comrades Martha and Liz to begin a new baby boom and help alleviate
the shortfall.
As for interviewing those "bears," our problem is we can't find
any "bulls" for a bull vs. bear debate. We have provided a list of
the usual suspects (Kasriel, Taylor, Murphy, Roach, Russell, Tice,
Sinclair, et al), but the "bulls" always politely decline. Perhaps
we should consider a "bear" vs. "perma-bear" debate? By the way,
we agree that Roach's analysis is complex. But man, he sure knows
his stuff. We're just wondering how long he and Kasriel can last
on Wall Street's dole? Maybe their firms will let us dress them up
as "bulls" so we can have our debate? Tell Murphy that we have no
immediate plans to interview gold proponents. We're waiting until
each of us has accumulated as much as possible below $400/oz. Then
we're going to open the floodgates by converting our segment "Trader
Talk" to "Gold Bug Talk" and watch the public go nuts, then back
up the truck! Tell Russell that we think gold will surpass the DJIA
much sooner, perhaps in 2006.
Mr. Holt, did you happen to hear Fed Chairman Greenspan address
Congress last week and tell us all that everything is fine? Personally,
we don't pay any attention to "Greenie" or any government statistic
except the recent one which states that 67% of the U.S. population
is overweight. It's kind of hard to exclude food from that report,
and there is no energy to speak of. We're trying to do our share
to support this low carb craze by making our segment "Power Lunch" so
boring that our audience falls asleep and misses lunch altogether.
To further prevent the taste buds from becoming aroused, we no longer
display food and drink on our show. Miss Manners wrote and scolded
us, saying it's not polite to eat in front of others. Since we don't
have enough to share with our 46 viewers, we decided to eat and drink
during commercial breaks.
With viewership declining, Kudlow and Cramer are trying to recruit "Greenie" to
host their show. We don't know if that's such a good idea. From the
likes of the congressional hearings, no one seemed to care about
the economy except Congressman Ron Paul. Hey wait, how about a Greenspan
vs. Paul "bull" vs. "bear" debate? We could hold it at the gates
of Ft. Knox. Now we're getting somewhere!
Mr. Holt, we were particularly tickled at your suggestion to convert
to a comedy channel. Do you really think we're that good? Do you
think Lorne Michaels from SNL might be watching?
Sincerely,
The CNBC Gang
-----------------------
(Just in case you haven't figured it out, the reply is tongue-in-cheek,
from the mind of Wistar himself.)
Wistar W. Holt
Holt & Shapard Capital Management,
LLC
St. Louis, MO 63108
(314)367-6300 / (877)367-6300